Thursday, March 19, 2009

Blindsided...

...but there's some comfort in knowing I wasn't the only one? Because really, without the aide of Dial Idol predictions, who would have seen that coming? Alexis had been great, was liked by judges and viewers, and was a perfectly likeable personality at this stage.

And so my Idol education continues. Weird, extremely disappointing things happen, and there's nothing you can do about it. Except vote more. And I think maybe that's the best explanation for what happened this week. Alexis' rendition of Jolene wasn't all that great, but you can see from her other scores that she'd been very well received. She was one of the favorites, even one of the rumored "rigged final four."

So I think a lot of people just assumed she wasn't in any danger and voted for their other favorites. Comeback votes for Anoop. Sympathy votes for Megan. And somehow everything broke in such a way that one of the best contestants is gone way too soon.

I refused to believe Dial Idol could be right about Allison and Alexis being in danger. I'm tempted to ban myself from peeking at the predictions, lest I continue to ignore what unfortunately proved to be good information. We see what we want to see, I suppose. At least until what we want to see is off the show and off the tour and out of sight forever.

And though I've already said I'm okay with the Save Rule in principle, last night was clearly the logical time to use it. Alexis was absolutely worth saving, unless everything the judges had said about her previous performances was pure B.S. The save shouldn't be dependent upon how well you "sing for your life" at the end of the show, because that's an impossible position to be in.

It should be used when someone who's clearly talented and more deserving than others of remaining on the show is inexplicably voted off. Alexis is definitively better than Scott, Michael, Megan, and Kris, and arguably better than others, as well. Were the save anything more than a cheap production ploy, it would have been used Wednesday night. What a tease to say they would consider saving her. A straight-up lie.

I would argue that once you get town to the top 6 or so, there aren't any true "shockers." At that point, everyone should be fairly even and someone will have to go. But because Alexis is so superior to about half the remaining field, this actually qualifies as a shock.

Surely, as we speak, Scott and Michael are drawing straws to see who should resign from the competition so Alexis can be reinstated.

Surely.

Top 11 Studio Recordings

Idol Blog Live has them for you.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Top 11 Results Wrap-Up

Lip syncing. Hooray. Michael loves his kids. Aww.

I'll have more about the show later. I guess if I'd been watching the show for years I'd be pretty unfazed by nights like this, but boy did voters ever swing and miss last night.

Dial Idol Predictions: Potential Spoilers!

But I'll give you fair warning before writing anything meaningful about it. If you're curious to see who's likely to be in trouble come results time tonight, here's the list.

But, starting now, if you want no hint of what might happen this evening, it's time to look away.

I'll start with the no-brainers. Danny and Anoop are in no danger of going anywhere, and it's the second week in a row the Dial Idol has indicated Danny was the top vote getter. Anoop was much higher last week than his performance justified, but this week he earned the votes.

The middle of the pack isn't surprising, aside from Michael's oddly strong showing. I guess you have to chalk it up to his fan base really liking last night's theme. Still, the performance was bad enough I thought he'd be further down the list.

And so now we arrive at the alleged bottom 3, and the results are surprising. It's not surprising to find Megan in there, but the predictions suggest that Alexis and Allison are the bottom 2. They also had Allison down there last week, but I'm skeptical that she truly was that low. I find it equally hard to believe that either of these two ladies, let alone both, could really be in danger of getting the boot.

Here's hoping it's not accurate, because they've been two of the best so far.

Top 11 Power Rankings

Power rankings for the top 11. This is how I see everyone's standing in the overall competition, not a ranking of how everyone did Tuesday night. That analysis is right here.

For comparison's sake, last week's power rankings are here.

The Favorite
1. Danny Gokey - Harder to dislike than Adam gives him edge.

The Contenders
2. Adam Lambert - Polarizing, but he's the most talented.
3. Alexis Grace - Not her best, but no reason to drop her yet.

Contending To Contend
4. Lil Rounds - Other formats will be friendlier.
5. Allison Iraheta - Tempting to bump up, but why rush?

The Sleeper
6. Anoop Desai - An aberration, or a revelation?

The Deep Sleeper
7. Matt Giraud - In need of a breakout performance.

Can't Quite Hack It
8. Kris Allen - I need to accept he's well-liked, but I can't.
9. Scott MacIntyre - Likewise. Don't understand the love.
10. Michael Sarver - Country fan base to the rescue.

Sayonara
11. Megan Joy - Pretty face, slinky dress not enough.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Top 11 - Grand Ole Opry

Top of 11 analysis follows.

Once again, here's a link explaining the grading scale I'm using to evaluate the competitors. A bit unusual, yes, but it is what it is. Just trying to add a unique twist.

http://scoutingtheidols.blogspot.com/2009/03/scale.html

Also, keep in mind that grades are still fairly conservative at this point, in both the positive and negative directions. Probably another week or two before I start to hand out any 70s. The grades (aside from song choice and appearance) aren't entirely specific to tonight, but are influenced by what each singer has done over the course of the entire season.

And also keep in mind that I don't pretend for one millisecond to be anything short of a country music imbecile. My song choice grades are based purely on how the singers acquitted themselves on the songs they chose and whether or not I "feel" a different type of song would have been more advantageous.

And so.
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Michael Sarver - "Ain't Going Down Til The Sun Comes Up"

Vocal ability: 50
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 45
Star power: 40
Song choice: 35

Mumbly jumbly bad. For god's sake, it's not a memorization contest. Great, so he learned and remembered a lot of words. I couldn't understand any of them. And the problem with quantity is it leaves little time for quality. This is supposed to be about singing, but he barely did any. On a night when many, including myself, expected him to do well, Michael may have just booked his ticket home. Last week he surprised with quite a good voice. Tonight he bombed.
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Allison Iraheta - "Blame It On Your Heart"


Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 60
Star power: 60
Song choice: 60

Allison continues to be one of my favorites. After establishing herself as an angsty rocker chick early on, she came through with a song that both highlighted her established strengths and also showed some versatility. She was wise (or lucky, if Alexis got to pick her song first) to avoid "Jolene," as it would have suited her perfectly but also perhaps been too similar to her previous two performances. The song tonight was upbeat, but she didn't go overboard trying to "be" country. She simply sang, and the result was an ideal blend of her personality adapting to the theme at hand. The vocals weren't show-stopping, but they didn't need to be. We know she can sing, we just needed to see some evidence of adaptability. Bravo.
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Kris Allen - "To Make You Feel My Love"

Vocal ability: 45
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 60
Versatility: 45
Star power: 45
Song choice: 50

I believe Simon actually used the word "terrific" to describe this performance. I wonder what kind of bonus the producers offered to get him to talk Kris up a bit, because I can't believe he honestly believes this was anything remotely approaching terrific. I get the appeal, to a degree. He's good looking and has moments where his voice is pretty nice. But there's nothing dynamic about him; not as a singer and not as a performer. This was just boring and clearly established him as one of the three least-talented contestants left. He's probably in no danger of getting sent home yet, but his mediocrity will only become more apparent over the next couple of weeks.
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Lil Rounds - "Independence Day"

Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 55
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 55
Star power: 55
Song choice: 55

Pretty much exactly what I expected from Lil. She was never likely to shine under the country format, but she can sing, so there was really no danger of any kind of disaster. The criticisms were all fair, I suppose, but I think the judges realize just as most of us do that Lil will be around for a while, so they took an obvious opportunity to bring her down to earth a little bit. It was solid. She was probably capable of much, more but chose to play it safe in a genre that doesn't play to her obvious strengths.
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Adam Lambert - "Ring of Fire"

Vocal ability: 70
Consistency: 60
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 65
Star power: 60
Song choice: 55

This is what I wanted I wanted to see him do, and he nailed it. He has plenty of room for error, so why not try to pull off something like this? As with all things Adam, there will be some serious love-hate polarization regarding this performance, but tonight he cut the theatrics and got back to basics: singing songs wonderfully. Was it a strange musical arrangement? Yes. Were people in Nashville throwing their televisions out the window, as Simon suggested? Quite possibly. There was essentially nothing country about what he did, and it might have been blasphemous to some. But it doesn't matter. You can fairly criticize him on "countrylessness", but then you also have to credit him for "making it his own," something the judges always like to see. There's no denying the quality of his voice. There were no shrieks or screams tonight, just some pretty insane range.
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Scott MacIntyre - "Wild Angels"

Vocal ability: 40
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 40
Star power: 40
Song choice: 45

The final entrant in the least-talented triumvirate, Scott was once again just bland and unimpressive. He's the worst singer, the least passionate performer, and is clearly limited in range both vocally and in his versatility. The judges said his performances were too similar and they wanted to see him break out, but they're ignoring the simple fact that he's just not capable of doing so. I'm not sure why they've been so generous in their comments to him. The show really doesn't need Scott MacIntyre. Paula nailed it when she said the piano is becoming a crutch, but it's also his key to remaining in the competition. If he gets out from behind it, I think that will be curtains for him.
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Alexis Grace - "Jolene"

Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 55
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 50

I clearly whiffed when I guessed that we'd get something upbeat from Alexis this week. She and Allison both needed to shake up the tone of their performances a bit, but Alexis decided to stick with what had been working, only tonight it worked a little bit less. It was an okay performance, but lacked the edginess -- or "dirtiness," as Kara said -- of her previous outings. If she's going to continue to go this route, she needs to maintain the intensity of the past few weeks or else people will start talking more about how good she "was" rather than how good she "is." Varying the types of songs she chooses will keep viewers from getting down on her because of predictability and the difficulty of matching the quality of her earlier efforts. It can be okay to have an off week doing something different; it's not okay to give the impression that you're getting worse at what you once were great at.
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Danny Gokey - "Jesus Take The Wheel"

Vocal ability: 60
Consistency: 55
Appearance: 40
Versatility: 55
Star power: 50
Song choice: 55

First, what the hell was that jacket about? He looked ridiculous, but sounded very good. First half was unimpressive, second half he hit his stride. That's kind of becoming his formula, so at some point he's going to have to get better and starting strong, not just finishing strong. But, it's Danny, so minor quibbles like that aren't going to threaten him any time soon. He does seem to be struggling to find the right look. That's obviously not the critical thing here, but the other front-runners (Adam, Alexis, Allison) have a much better handle on who they want to be on stage. Right now he comes across as a really good singer, but others convey a stronger sense of identity as performers or, dare I say, artists.

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Anoop Desai - "Always On My Mind"

Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 45
Appearance: 50
Versatility: 55
Star power: 50
Song choice: 60

Zero to hero, indeed. This is the shock of the competition so far. As much as Michael's solid performance last week surprised me, this one shocked me much, much more. This rivals Adam for best performance of the night, but dwarfs all others in terms of what was at stake and rising to the occasion. Solid fan base aside, Anoop really couldn't afford another beating from the judges like the one he took last week. Tonight he finally busted out the voice that had been hinted at in other performances but never really given room to stretch and soar. His overall marks are still down because he's been so hit-or-miss, but if this is a sign of things to come from him, then things just got a little more interesting in the competition.
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Megan Joy - "Walkin' After Midnight"

Vocal ability: 45
Consistency: 50
Appearance: 70
Versatility: 50
Star power: 55
Song choice: 50

And we have another 70 this evening
. Unfortunately, nothing about her performance approached the level of her looks and dress. She was solid, a definite improvement over last week. And she did choose a moodier song than we've come to expect from her, but as much as I want to like her, it's becoming apparent that her range is pretty limited. Again, she seems nearly ready as a "package" to record albums of a certain type, but I don't think she has the talent to go deep into this competition. Her voice is very interesting and unique, but it's not big. Her personality comes through when she's on stage, but she doesn't really do anything vocally to take your attention off the pretty face. That can sell records, but it can't win Idol.
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Matt Giraud - "So Small"

Vocal ability: 55
Consistency: 55
Appearance: 55
Versatility: 45
Star power: 50
Song choice: 50

For no particular reason, I thought Matt would turn in one of the stronger performances of the night. Watching it live I wasn't especially impressed, but having gone back and listened to it again, it was a pretty strong performance. While he's vastly superior to Scott, I'd like to see Matt get out from behind the piano and really try to match up vocally with some of the other top singers. I'm still not sure just how good I think he is, and his song selection has been pretty vanilla in my eyes. Right now my boredom with his performances is overshadowing whatever talent is trying to shine through. With Anoop suddenly jumping back into the thick of things, Matt's margin for error just got a little bit smaller.

Monday, March 16, 2009

Fearless Forecast: Grand Ole Opry

Because guessing (and being wrong) is more than half the fun, here's who I see rising and shining tomorrow, and who I see crashing and burning. Mind you, this is how I see the strength of the performances shaping up, not necessarily who I see ending up in jeopardy come results night. You'll get my take on that after Tuesday's show.

1) Adam Lambert - Focuses on singing more than performing
2) Alexis Grace - Expect something upbeat and fun
3) Matt Giraud - Playing a hunch
4) Danny Gokey - Nothing to worry about
5)
Michael Sarver - Solid once again
6) Allison Iraheta - Voice will be fine, song choice is the concern
7) Lil Rounds - Will be fine, but won't wow anyone
8) Megan Joy - Expect something moodier
9) Kris Allen - Couple spots too low? Couple too high?
10)
Anoop Desai - Chooses a safe song but doesn't impress
11) Scott MacIntyre - At his best, he's still the worst

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Studio Recording Review

I intended to do this myself the other day, but some technical problems held me up. For this week, I'll just link to MJ's rundown of everyone's full-length studio recordings. Hopefully when the next batch comes out I'll be able to get some commentary up in a timely fashion.

You can listen to the recordings here, or purchase them from iTunes.